NSW is a state that doesn't change its mind often. It is one of the world's most stable, indeed perhaps sclerotic democracies, with only four changes of government in the past 70 years.

Such stability should lead to governments that think about the long term, not the next election. Unfortunately, that hasn't been the case. Governments have failed to plan and, when they have planned, they have failed to deliver.

With a change of government in the wind, this election promises to be the most significant in a generation. Although the Liberal and National parties need a near record swing to win government, opinion polls - including the Herald/Nielsen poll - predict they will win comfortably.

If they win, it will be because of the overwhelming dissatisfaction of the people of NSW with the Labor Party, not because of the attractions of a sweeping reform agenda from the Coalition.

The Labor Party seems to have run out of ideas. So far, it has promised little beyond an election handout to help those struggling with higher power bills - increases for which it must take responsibility. It has only a few weeks to convince voters it doesn't deserve a thorough drubbing at the polls.

The Coalition appears likely to win government without a mandate for bold change - largely because it isn't asking for one. For understandable political reasons, it has minimised the extent of its promises and the detail of them.

But this represents a lost opportunity. NSW should not settle for business as usual under new management.

In many areas, NSW has lost its way. Big issues - such as how the state government can fund growing health expenditure - transcend politics. The politics of the ''small target strategy'' underestimates the intelligence of the voters. They understand that government is about something more than election handouts and that, occasionally, there should be painful change in order to have better government. The people of NSW are ready for change.