Monash University senior politics lecturer Nick Economou said that because 2010 is an election year, the Government would face an electorate questioning it on budget promises.

He predicts the Government will increase its commitment to health and education in its budget, to be released on May 5.

It may also speed up building of the Wonthaggi de-

salination plant, which is nearly 900 days from completion, after Melbourne's water storage levels fell to 28per cent this month, he said.

Dr Economou said the budget would be a "balancing act" as the State Government tried to maintain a surplus during Australia's looming recession. But he noted that Labor had yet to take a hit in the polls in the face of the economic downturn.

"The full consequences of the economic crisis are yet to be felt in Australia. Whether or not the full impact will hit before the next election, I'm not sure.

"Will the Victorian economy be in such disarray that it would mobilise large numbers of voters to change sides? At the moment, the polls suggest not."

Dr Economou said the State Government could face a substantial reduction of GST revenue because of a decline in consumption.

"It's also going to have to try and do its bit to prime the Victorian economy by providing it with infrastructure funding but at the same time, from what has been said by Mr Brumby, it's still going to try to produce a surplus or as small a deficit as it possibly can, in contrast to the Federal Government."

Dr Economou also predicted that after the Rowville Rail project failed to receive funding in last year's $38billion Victorian Transport Plan, it was unlikely to be funded in the next budget.

"I've heard one State Government after another, especially Labor governments, promise a rail extension and it's never happened."