Nick Economou, a senior politics lecturer, described Mr Howard's reign as "a dreadful government that went on for a very long time".

"I don't think history is going to judge him very well. Howard will probably be seen as a tenacious politician who could cling on to power.

"There is nothing else for him to be remembered for."

He said the former government had been tarnished by its "indulgence in race politics", its "politicisation" of the army, a scandalised immigration department, supporting the Iraq conflict on a false premise and the Iraq wheat-for-oil scandal.

He said that despite the government's claims, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the treasury department had the greatest role in Australia's economic strength.

"There has been a time of economic prosperity, but I regard it as a period of wasted opportunity."

Six weeks ago, Dr Economou predicted that Liberal members Phil Barresi and Jason Wood would be in trouble in Deakin and La Trobe.

He said many of the swings in the east and south-east "mortgage belt" could be attributed to interest-rate rises, though not in relatively affluent Deakin.

Safe ALP seats such as Holt, Bruce, Hotham and Isaacs became safer during the election, and Chisholm has been transformed from a marginal gain in 1998 for MP Anna Burke to a safe Labor seat.

Dr Economou predicted that Ms Burke was in line for a ministerial post, joining other Cabinet hopefuls Alan Griffin (Bruce), Simon Crean (Hotham) and Anthony Byrne (Holt).

He expected that Mr Rudd may call a double dissolution within two years if independent Nick Xenophon and Family First's Steve Fielding hold the balance of power in the Senate and blocked legislation.