Unfortunately, the guest speaker's forecast held for barely 24 hours, with his employer raising its interest rates by 0.1 per cent the next day.

In his talk, ominously titled Is this the end of the world as we know it?, Mark Rodrigues was confident Australia's economy would continue to grow beyond the 17th consecutive year.

He rated the chances of recession in Australia as "pretty low", even though the US was heading for, or perhaps already in, recession.

Australia's "beacon of hope" was the growth of China and other developing Asian economies, which were less shaken by the US downturn than 10years ago.

"The good news for us is that Australia's economic future is already tied to Asia."

At the same time, he said, Australia's economy was being slowed by the "credit crunch" caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis.

Mr Rodrigues said the Reserve Bank's efforts to slow consumer demand and halt inflation were being curtailed by the economic boom, while personal tax cuts had also stimulated the economy.

Asked if the Federal Government's promise of $31 billion of income-tax cuts was a good idea, Mr Rodrigues said it was a "political reality" after both sides of politics promised the cuts during last year's election. "But if I was starting with a blank sheet, I wouldn't recommend tax cuts."

Although the annual consumer price index rose to 4.1 per cent in the March quarter, Mr Rodrigues doubted the Reserve Bank would raise interest rates. He said there hadn't been time for the series of interest rate rises in the previous six months to take full effect, and there were signs consumer demand was cooling.

"Overall, it's a pretty positive story, but one thing's for sure: over the next 12 to 18 months, we'll have a more challenging economic environment than we've seen for some time."

At the lunch, Clayton special-purpose pump supplier Acromet was nominated for the 2008 Monash Business Awards.