A MONASH expert has backed the findings of a leaked Department of Sustainability and Environment report that predicts the upcoming fire season could bring the "greatest potential loss to life and property".
While Victorians are still coming to terms with Black Saturday and last summer's bushfires, a paper tabled at a DSE and CFA strategic preparedness committee meeting this month has grave predictions for the season ahead.
"The prospect we are looking at is not just another above-average fire season with above-normal losses or risks to life and property," the report said.
"The genuine prospect of a season with the greatest potential loss to life and property is now in sight, and as climate indicators strengthen, this looks to be an increasing likelihood."
According to the July 10 report by DSE fire management officer Paul Brockhoff, the number of fires and the predicted areas burnt are expected to run ahead of the 30-year average.
"There is across the state an observed lack of rain, increased evaporation, and the strongest predictions so far of the continuation of drier and warmer conditions."
The paper also states there was a "high likelihood" of an El Nino event occurring this year, with the fire season to begin early and be more active in the early part of the season. Larger fires are also expected due to the absence of natural barriers like moist gullies and waterways.
"That the terrain has not saturated over winter will mean our current models will under-predict fire behaviour.
"Even increases in rainfall to average or above average will result in us arriving at our worst-case climate outlook, and in turn our outlook for fire ignition, spread and difficulty of suppression."
While the report stated fatigue management would again be an issue, preparations for the upcoming season were well under way.
DSE chief fire officer Ewan Waller told the Journal the report was part of a regular series on weather predictions for the next fire season.
He said the dry forecast could well be accurate, unless above-average rainfall soaked Victoria in coming months.
"The recent rains have been great but they're coming on top of the deep underlying dryness. This is quite similar to the messages we've had for the past five years.
"Since we've been having low rainfall, we've been vulnerable to large fire events for a number of years.
"We are now looking even closer at the El Nino effect, which could add a further drying effect."
He urged people to start preparing their homes for the fire season in a "focused, objective and purposeful way".
Bushfire expert Professor Michael Reeder, of Monash University, said: "Victoria has been in a prolonged drought and there's no reason to believe it's going to break at the moment. It's likely to remain dry which creates a higher potential for fire."
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